Serie B — Italy
Wed, Mar 4 2026 • 19:00 • Stadio San Nicola
Match Finished
2 - 1
Expected Goals
1.11 (league 1.46) 1.21 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.4% 28.2% 38.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 1
11.9%
1 - 0
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
Empoli
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bari 0 9.8% 11.9% 7.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
1 10.9% 13.2% 8.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
2 6.1% 7.3% 4.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.2% 2.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBariEmpoli
Played55
Form33%20%
Attack26%37%
Defense74%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bari Empoli
HATHAT
Played131427151227
Wins23%14%19%20%33%26%
Draws38%36%37%60%8%37%
Loses38%50%44%20%58%37%

Form: Bari: LDLLDDWLWWDLLDDDLDLLWLLDLDW • Empoli: WLDLDDWDLDLWWWLLWDWLLDLLDDD

League goals

Metric Bari Empoli
HATHAT
GF total121123201333
GF avg0.90.80.91.31.11.2
GA total162339162137
GA avg1.21.61.41.11.81.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBariEmpoli
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%78%78%78%
1.519%41%26%37%
2.50%19%11%19%
3.50%4%4%4%
4.50%4%4%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBariEmpoli
HATHAT
Clean sheets336336
Failed to score369246

Penalties

MetricBariEmpoli
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricBariEmpoli
Wins23
Draws32
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-25-00-3
Biggest losses0-35-01-34-0
Goals For2253
Goals Against3534

Model comparison

MetricBariEmpoli
Form63%38%
Att42%58%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h0%100%
Goals14%86%
Total46.4%53.8%

Advice: Double chance : Bari or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.33 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.25 @ Bet365
Away2.40 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.14 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.76 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.87 @ Pinnacle
No2.00 @ Betano
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Bari = 1.11 (league 1.46), Empoli = 1.21 (league 1.09)

Empoli
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bari 0 9.8% 11.9% 7.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
1 10.9% 13.2% 8.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
2 6.1% 7.3% 4.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.2% 2.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.4% · Draw 28.2% · Away win 38.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1