Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 17:30 •
Stadio Dino Manuzzi
Expected Goals
1.65 (league 1.45)
1.09 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.7% | 24.4% | 25.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.6%
1 - 0
10.6%
2 - 1
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Sampdoria | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cesena | 0 | 6.4% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.8% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Cesena carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cesena -16.7, Sampdoria +9.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Cesena
vs
Sampdoria
Elo gapCesena +20
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2947.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2947.1
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Cesena | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1465.9 | 1481.2 |
| Form Elo | 1450.4 | 1476.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1484.1 | 1453.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1442 | 1392.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1473.7 | 1527.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -16.7 | +9.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Cesena last-5 Elo change: -16.7; Sampdoria last-5 Elo change: +9.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cesena | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 60% |
| Attack | 40% | 50% |
| Defense | 10% | 30% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cesena | Sampdoria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 18 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
| Wins | 35% | 33% | 34% | 44% | 12% | 29% |
| Draws | 29% | 17% | 23% | 28% | 29% | 29% |
| Loses | 35% | 50% | 43% | 28% | 59% | 43% |
CesenaWDWWDLLWWWLWLWDWDLLWLLWLLLDLDDLWDLL
SampdoriaLLLLDDWLDDLLWLWLDWLDDWWDWLLDLDLWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Cesena | Sampdoria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 17 | 42 | 21 | 13 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 25 | 27 | 52 | 20 | 27 | 47 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cesena | Sampdoria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 86% | 66% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 40% | 20% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 20% | 9% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cesena | Sampdoria | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cesena | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cesena | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cesena | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 48.5% | 51.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.53 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.25 @ Betfair
Away3.10 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.15 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.75 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.87 @ Betfair
No1.98 @ Betano
📊
League standings
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