Fri, May 1 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Expected Goals
1.83 (league 1.45)
0.77 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.4% | 22.2% | 15.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.6%
2 - 0
12.4%
1 - 1
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Catanzaro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Palermo | 0 | 7.4% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Palermo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 83 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Palermo +21.1, Catanzaro +3.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Palermo
vs
Catanzaro
Elo gapPalermo +83
Home / draw / away49% / 21% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3166.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3166.2
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Palermo | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1607 | 1559.2 |
| Form Elo | 1610.8 | 1562 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1574.7 | 1506.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1618.9 | 1584.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1613.4 | 1503.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +21.1 | +3.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Palermo last-5 Elo change: +21.1; Catanzaro last-5 Elo change: +3.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Palermo | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 47% |
| Attack | 88% | 100% |
| Defense | 75% | 13% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Palermo | Catanzaro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 18 | 36 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| Wins | 72% | 33% | 53% | 50% | 33% | 42% |
| Draws | 22% | 44% | 33% | 44% | 33% | 39% |
| Loses | 6% | 22% | 14% | 6% | 33% | 19% |
PalermoWDWWDDWDLLWLDWWWDWDWDWWDWWLWWLDWWDWD
CatanzaroDDDDDDLLWWWLDWWWWWLLDLWWWWDDWWLDDDDW
League goals
| Metric | Palermo | Catanzaro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 23 | 58 | 32 | 26 | 58 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 10 | 19 | 29 | 20 | 25 | 45 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Palermo | Catanzaro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 53% | 83% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 47% | 19% | 53% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 8% | 22% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Palermo | Catanzaro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 12 | 5 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Palermo | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Palermo | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 6 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-3 | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Palermo | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 61% | 39% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 78% | 22% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 54.8% | 45.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.70 @ Betano
Draw4.02 @ Pinnacle
Away5.00 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.75 @ Betano
Under 2.52.12 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.72 @ Betano
No2.05 @ William Hill
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League standings
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