Fri, May 1 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Romeo Menti
Expected Goals
1.06 (league 1.45)
1.32 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.8% | 27.5% | 42.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 1
12.2%
1 - 0
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Frosinone | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Juve Stabia | 0 | 9.2% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Frosinone carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 83 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Juve Stabia +11.0, Frosinone +29.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Juve Stabia
vs
Frosinone
Elo gapFrosinone +83
Home / draw / away30% / 21% / 49%
Expected home share38%
Combined Elo3160.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3160.8
Elo home share
38%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1521.3 | 1639.5 |
| Form Elo | 1521.1 | 1657.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1555.8 | 1575.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1481.1 | 1640.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1542 | 1602.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +11.0 | +29.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Juve Stabia last-5 Elo change: +11.0; Frosinone last-5 Elo change: +29.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 87% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 25% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Frosinone | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 18 | 36 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| Wins | 44% | 17% | 31% | 61% | 56% | 58% |
| Draws | 50% | 44% | 47% | 28% | 39% | 33% |
| Loses | 6% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 8% |
Juve StabiaDDDWDWLWDLWLDDLWDWDWWDDWLLDDLDDWLWDD
FrosinoneWDWDWWLLDWWDWWWWWDWDWDLWWDDDWDWWWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Frosinone | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 18 | 43 | 37 | 33 | 70 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 14 | 29 | 43 | 15 | 19 | 34 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Juve Stabia | Frosinone | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 69% | 92% | 64% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 36% | 69% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 14% | 25% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Frosinone | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 62% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 34.7% | 65.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.38 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.60 @ Betfair
Away2.15 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.80 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.10 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.62 @ 10Bet
No2.22 @ Betano
📊
League standings
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