Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 16:00 •
Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob
Expected Goals
1.08 (league 1.57)
0.28 (league 1.59)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 56.2% | 34.0% | 9.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
27.6%
0 - 0
25.6%
2 - 0
14.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Luzern W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Basel W | 0 | 25.6% | 7.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.9% | 4.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Basel W | Luzern W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 47% |
| Attack | 23% | 27% |
| Defense | 88% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 14 | 2.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Basel W | Luzern W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 80% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 20% | 67% | 0% | 40% |
Form: Basel W: WLWWW • Luzern W: LDWWL
League goals
| Metric | Basel W | Luzern W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Basel W | Luzern W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 40% | 80% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 20% | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Basel W | Luzern W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Basel W | Luzern W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Basel W | Luzern W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | 2-8 | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Basel W | Luzern W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 37% |
| Att | 46% | 54% |
| Def | 82% | 18% |
| Poisson Distribution | 78% | 22% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 85% | 15% |
| Total | 72.3% | 27.7% |
Advice: Double chance : Basel W or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Basel W = 1.08 (league 1.57), Luzern W = 0.28 (league 1.59)
| Luzern W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Basel W | 0 | 25.6% | 7.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.9% | 4.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 56.2% · Draw 34.0% · Away win 9.7%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1