Fri, Dec 5 2025 • 18:00 • Stade Roger Lebert
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.86 (league 1.86) 1.35 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.8% 27.9% 48.0%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.8%
1 - 1
12.7%
0 - 0
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
Paris Saint Germain W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille W 0 10.9% 14.8% 10.0% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4%
1 9.4% 12.7% 8.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%
2 4.0% 5.5% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarseille WParis Saint Germain W
Played55
Form53%100%
Attack47%71%
Defense59%94%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.612 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.41 | 0.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marseille W Paris Saint Germain W
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins25%25%25%100%50%75%
Draws25%25%25%0%25%13%
Loses50%50%50%0%25%13%

Form: Marseille W: LLLWLDDW • Paris Saint Germain W: DWLWWWWW

League goals

Metric Marseille W Paris Saint Germain W
HATHAT
GF total371012719
GF avg0.81.81.33.01.82.4
GA total410142810
GA avg1.02.51.80.52.01.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarseille WParis Saint Germain W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%63%100%50%
1.525%50%50%25%
2.513%25%38%13%
3.513%13%38%13%
4.50%13%13%13%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarseille WParis Saint Germain W
HATHAT
Clean sheets213314
Failed to score202000

Penalties

MetricMarseille WParis Saint Germain W
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total14

Streaks

MetricMarseille WParis Saint Germain W
Wins11
Draws21
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-44-01-4
Biggest losses0-26-1—6-1
Goals For2454
Goals Against2626

Model comparison

MetricMarseille WParis Saint Germain W
Form35%65%
Att40%60%
Def13%88%
Poisson Distribution39%61%
H2h20%80%
Goals14%86%
Total26.8%73.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Paris Saint Germain W

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home9.40 @ 1xBet
Draw5.75 @ Bet365
Away1.32 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.65 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.35 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.12 @ 188Bet
No1.85 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marseille W = 0.86 (league 1.86), Paris Saint Germain W = 1.35 (league 1.33)

Paris Saint Germain W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille W 0 10.9% 14.8% 10.0% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4%
1 9.4% 12.7% 8.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%
2 4.0% 5.5% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.8% · Draw 27.9% · Away win 48.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1