Sat, Mar 28 2026 • 17:30 • Stade Roger Lebert
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.02 (league 1.73) 2.29 (league 1.36)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
15.3% 18.6% 63.0%
best score tips
1 - 2
9.8%
0 - 2
9.6%
1 - 1
8.5%
Score & goals probability table
Montpellier W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille W 0 3.7% 8.4% 9.6% 7.3% 4.2% 1.9%
1 3.7% 8.5% 9.8% 7.5% 4.3% 2.0%
2 1.9% 4.3% 5.0% 3.8% 2.2% 1.0%
3 0.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarseille WMontpellier W
Played55
Form27%7%
Attack50%33%
Defense17%44%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)15 | 310 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

69%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marseille W Montpellier W
HATHAT
Played810189918
Wins13%30%22%22%0%11%
Draws13%30%22%11%22%17%
Loses75%40%56%67%78%72%

Form: Marseille W: LLLWLDDWLLWLDLWLLD • Montpellier W: LLLWWLLLLDLLDLLDLL

League goals

Metric Marseille W Montpellier W
HATHAT
GF total61824121224
GF avg0.81.81.31.31.31.3
GA total192039192039
GA avg2.42.02.22.12.22.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarseille WMontpellier W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.572%78%89%94%
1.533%61%39%78%
2.517%33%6%28%
3.511%17%0%11%
4.50%17%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarseille WMontpellier W
HATHAT
Clean sheets224101
Failed to score415112

Penalties

MetricMarseille WMontpellier W
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricMarseille WMontpellier W
Wins12
Draws21
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-43-1—
Biggest losses2-66-11-54-2
Goals For2432
Goals Against6654

Model comparison

MetricMarseille WMontpellier W
Form80%20%
Att60%40%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution36%64%
H2h29%71%
Goals38%63%
Total47.2%53.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Montpellier W

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.25 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.79 @ Pinnacle
Away3.00 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.62 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.29 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ Bet365
No2.45 @ BetVictor
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marseille W = 1.02 (league 1.73), Montpellier W = 2.29 (league 1.36)

Montpellier W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille W 0 3.7% 8.4% 9.6% 7.3% 4.2% 1.9%
1 3.7% 8.5% 9.8% 7.5% 4.3% 2.0%
2 1.9% 4.3% 5.0% 3.8% 2.2% 1.0%
3 0.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 15.3% · Draw 18.6% · Away win 63.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1