Feminine Division 1 — France
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 19:00 • Degouve-Brabant Stadium
Not Started

Lens W

—

Marseille W

Expected Goals
1.38 (league 1.59) 2.64 (league 1.43)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
17.9% 17.3% 59.2%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.6%
1 - 3
7.6%
1 - 1
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
Marseille W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lens W 0 1.8% 4.7% 6.2% 5.5% 3.6% 1.9%
1 2.5% 6.5% 8.6% 7.6% 5.0% 2.7%
2 1.7% 4.5% 6.0% 5.2% 3.5% 1.8%
3 0.8% 2.1% 2.7% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8%
4 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Lens W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 35 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lens W -4.4, Marseille W -34.9.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Lens W Elo 1432.2 · -4.4
vs
Marseille W Elo 1432.7 · -34.9
Elo gapLens W +35
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2864.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2864.9
Elo home share 55%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Lens W Marseille W
Overall Elo1432.21432.7
Form Elo1424.81416.7
Home / Away Elo1470.61501.9
Attack Elo1433.31489.2
Defense Elo1407.11379.7
Last 5 Elo change-4.4-34.9

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Lens W last-5 Elo change: -4.4; Marseille W last-5 Elo change: -34.9.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLens WMarseille W
Played55
Form40%7%
Attack31%46%
Defense46%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.414 | 2.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-3
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lens W Marseille W
HATHAT
Played101020101020
Wins30%10%20%10%30%20%
Draws10%30%20%10%30%20%
Loses60%60%60%80%40%60%
Lens WDDLLLLLLWDWLLDLLWLLW
Marseille WLLLWLDDWLLWLDLWLLDLL

League goals

Metric Lens W Marseille W
HATHAT
GF total1181971825
GF avg1.10.81.00.71.81.3
GA total212041232043
GA avg2.12.02.12.32.02.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLens WMarseille W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.565%90%70%80%
1.525%55%30%65%
2.55%25%15%30%
3.50%15%10%15%
4.50%5%0%15%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLens WMarseille W
HATHAT
Clean sheets112224
Failed to score347516

Penalties

MetricLens WMarseille W
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total33

Streaks

MetricLens WMarseille W
Wins11
Draws22
Losses63

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-12-00-4
Biggest losses1-84-02-66-1
Goals For3224
Goals Against8466

Model comparison

MetricLens WMarseille W
Form86%14%
Att40%60%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution38%62%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total57.8%42.3%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Venue page • Lens W vs Marseille W