Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 19:00 •
Stade Bernard Gasset Terrain n°7
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.59)
0.29 (league 1.43)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 57.5% | 32.8% | 9.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
27.2%
0 - 0
24.1%
2 - 0
15.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Saint-Étienne W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Montpellier W | 0 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.4% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Montpellier W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 90 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Montpellier W -6.1, Saint-Étienne W -16.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Montpellier W
vs
Saint-Étienne W
Elo gapMontpellier W +90
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2791
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2791
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Montpellier W | Saint-Étienne W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1423.1 | 1367.9 |
| Form Elo | 1403.8 | 1358.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1469.5 | 1437.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1494.7 | 1341.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1400 | 1361.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.1 | -16.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Montpellier W last-5 Elo change: -6.1; Saint-Étienne W last-5 Elo change: -16.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Montpellier W | Saint-Étienne W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 20% |
| Attack | 54% | 15% |
| Defense | 23% | 23% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Montpellier W | Saint-Étienne W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 10 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Wins | 20% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Draws | 10% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Loses | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
Montpellier WLLLWWLLLLDLLDLLDLLWL
Saint-Étienne WLLLLDWLLLDLWLDLLLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Montpellier W | Saint-Étienne W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 14 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| GA total | 21 | 21 | 42 | 21 | 15 | 36 |
| GA avg | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Montpellier W | Saint-Étienne W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 95% | 30% | 85% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 75% | 10% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 5% | 25% | 5% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 5% | 15% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Montpellier W | Saint-Étienne W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Montpellier W | Saint-Étienne W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Montpellier W | Saint-Étienne W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-2 | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 4-2 | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Montpellier W | Saint-Étienne W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 78% | 22% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 82% | 18% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 67.5% | 32.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…