National 1 — France
Fri, Sep 19 2025 • 17:30 • Stade Michel d'Ornano
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.97 (league 1.35) 0.46 (league 1.07)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
46.9% 36.0% 17.1%
best score tips
0 - 0
24.1%
1 - 0
23.2%
2 - 0
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
Valenciennes
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caen 0 24.1% 11.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
1 23.2% 10.7% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 11.2% 5.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 3.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCaenValenciennes
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack36%64%
Defense55%27%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

41%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

57%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Caen Valenciennes
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins33%33%33%67%0%33%
Draws33%67%50%0%33%17%
Loses33%0%17%33%67%50%

Form: Caen: WDLWDD • Valenciennes: DWLLLW

League goals

Metric Caen Valenciennes
HATHAT
GF total347527
GF avg1.01.31.21.70.71.2
GA total235448
GA avg0.71.00.81.31.31.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCaenValenciennes
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%67%83%67%
1.533%17%33%50%
2.517%0%0%17%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCaenValenciennes
HATHAT
Clean sheets202112
Failed to score202011

Penalties

MetricCaenValenciennes
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricCaenValenciennes
Wins11
Draws11
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-22-1—
Biggest losses0-2—2-32-1
Goals For3221
Goals Against2132

Model comparison

MetricCaenValenciennes
Form50%50%
Att36%64%
Def62%38%
Poisson Distribution70%30%
H2h75%25%
Goals64%36%
Total59.5%40.5%

Advice: Double chance : Caen or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.24 @ Dafabet
Draw3.34 @ Pinnacle
Away3.51 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.17 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.76 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ 188Bet
No1.91 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Caen = 0.97 (league 1.35), Valenciennes = 0.46 (league 1.07)

Valenciennes
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caen 0 24.1% 11.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
1 23.2% 10.7% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 11.2% 5.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 3.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.9% · Draw 36.0% · Away win 17.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1