National 1 — France
Fri, Mar 6 2026 • 18:30 • Stade Michel d'Ornano
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.61 (league 1.32) 0.54 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
30.7% 43.1% 26.2%
best score tips
0 - 0
31.8%
1 - 0
19.3%
0 - 1
17.1%
Score & goals probability table
Chateauroux
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caen 0 31.8% 17.1% 4.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
1 19.3% 10.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 5.9% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCaenChateauroux
Played55
Form27%13%
Attack47%27%
Defense33%47%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

57%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

58%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Caen Chateauroux
HATHAT
Played111122111021
Wins36%9%23%9%20%14%
Draws45%55%50%36%60%48%
Loses18%36%27%55%20%38%

Form: Caen: WDLWDDDLWLDDDWDDDLWDLL • Chateauroux: DDDLWDDWLDLWLDDLDLDLL

League goals

Metric Caen Chateauroux
HATHAT
GF total9162581220
GF avg0.81.51.10.71.21.0
GA total61925171027
GA avg0.51.71.11.51.01.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCaenChateauroux
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%64%57%76%
1.523%36%33%43%
2.514%14%5%10%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCaenChateauroux
HATHAT
Clean sheets808235
Failed to score505639

Penalties

MetricCaenChateauroux
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricCaenChateauroux
Wins11
Draws33
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-22-10-3
Biggest losses1-32-10-32-1
Goals For3323
Goals Against3332

Model comparison

MetricCaenChateauroux
Form67%33%
Att64%36%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h25%75%
Goals43%57%
Total49.5%50.5%

Advice: Double chance : Caen or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.90 @ 188Bet
Draw3.84 @ Pinnacle
Away4.75 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.11 @ SBO
Under 2.51.82 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.97 @ Pinnacle
No1.85 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Caen = 0.61 (league 1.32), Chateauroux = 0.54 (league 1.12)

Chateauroux
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caen 0 31.8% 17.1% 4.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
1 19.3% 10.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 5.9% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.7% · Draw 43.1% · Away win 26.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1