National 1
— France
Fri, May 1 2026 • 15:00 •
Stade Municipal Georges Lefèvre
Expected Goals
1.61 (league 1.29)
1.16 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.2% | 24.7% | 27.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.7%
1 - 0
10.0%
2 - 1
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Orleans | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Versailles | 0 | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Versailles carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Versailles +4.6, Orleans -18.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Versailles
vs
Orleans
Elo gapVersailles +47
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3076.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3076.8
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Versailles | Orleans |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1544.2 | 1532.6 |
| Form Elo | 1556.5 | 1535.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1529.9 | 1524.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1543.4 | 1509.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1552.2 | 1485.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.6 | -18.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Versailles last-5 Elo change: +4.6; Orleans last-5 Elo change: -18.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Versailles | Orleans |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 40% |
| Attack | 57% | 29% |
| Defense | 57% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Versailles | Orleans | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 57% | 40% | 48% | 40% | 50% | 45% |
| Draws | 14% | 27% | 21% | 33% | 21% | 28% |
| Loses | 29% | 33% | 31% | 27% | 29% | 28% |
VersaillesWWWWDLWWDLLDWLLLWWLWWDWDLWLWD
OrleansLLWWDWLWDWWLLWWLLWDDWDWWDDDWL
League goals
| Metric | Versailles | Orleans | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 18 | 41 | 21 | 17 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 15 | 16 | 31 | 21 | 18 | 39 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Versailles | Orleans | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 66% | 79% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 31% | 41% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 10% | 10% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Versailles | Orleans | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Versailles | Orleans |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Versailles | Orleans |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Versailles | Orleans |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 48.5% | 51.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.59 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.25 @ Betfair
Away2.71 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.74 @ 1xBet
No2.06 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.94 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.85 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
Loading standings…