National 1
— France
Fri, May 1 2026 • 17:30 •
Stade de la Libération
Expected Goals
0.05 (league 1.29)
0.05 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6% | 90.7% | 4.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
90.5%
0 - 1
4.5%
1 - 0
4.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Caen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ajaccio | 0 | 90.5% | 4.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Ajaccio carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 54 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ajaccio 0.0, Caen +47.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Ajaccio
vs
Caen
Elo gapAjaccio +54
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2978.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2978.1
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Ajaccio | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1498.5 | 1479.6 |
| Form Elo | 1498.5 | 1498.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1503.8 | 1469.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1466.9 | 1475.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1509.6 | 1510.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | 0.0 | +47.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Ajaccio last-5 Elo change: 0.0; Caen last-5 Elo change: +47.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ajaccio | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 0 | 5 |
| Form | 0% | 73% |
| Attack | 0% | 71% |
| Defense | 0% | 86% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
37%
FT probability
2.5+
26%
FT probability
3.5+
19%
FT probability
BTTS
48%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ajaccio | Caen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | — | — | — | 33% | 20% | 27% |
| Draws | — | — | — | 53% | 47% | 50% |
| Loses | — | — | — | 13% | 33% | 23% |
Ajaccio—
CaenWDLWDDDLWLDDDWDDDLWDLLDLDDDWWW
League goals
| Metric | Ajaccio | Caen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 22 | 38 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 31 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ajaccio | Caen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | — | — | 80% | 63% |
| 1.5 | — | — | 30% | 30% |
| 2.5 | — | — | 17% | 10% |
| 3.5 | — | — | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | — | — | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ajaccio | Caen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ajaccio | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ajaccio | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 3 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ajaccio | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0% | 100% |
| Att | 0% | 100% |
| Def | 100% | 0% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 45.0% | 55.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…