Liga 3 — Portugal
Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 15:00 • Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.08 (league 1.25) 0.53 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.8% 33.2% 17.9%
best score tips
1 - 0
21.6%
0 - 0
20.0%
2 - 0
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
Varzim
0 1 2 3 4 5
Trofense 0 20.0% 10.6% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.6% 11.4% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.7% 6.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTrofenseVarzim
Played55
Form67%40%
Attack83%67%
Defense67%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Trofense Varzim
HATHAT
Played336426
Wins67%33%50%25%50%33%
Draws0%67%33%75%0%50%
Loses33%0%17%0%50%17%

Form: Trofense: DWDWWL • Varzim: WWLDDD

League goals

Metric Trofense Varzim
HATHAT
GF total8210819
GF avg2.70.71.72.00.51.5
GA total314415
GA avg1.00.30.71.00.50.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTrofenseVarzim
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%50%83%67%
1.550%17%33%17%
2.517%0%17%0%
3.517%0%17%0%
4.517%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTrofenseVarzim
HATHAT
Clean sheets123112
Failed to score022011

Penalties

MetricTrofenseVarzim
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total04

Streaks

MetricTrofenseVarzim
Wins22
Draws10
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-11-24-00-1
Biggest losses1-2——1-0
Goals For5241
Goals Against2121

Model comparison

MetricTrofenseVarzim
Form63%38%
Att56%44%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution65%35%
H2h71%29%
Goals65%35%
Total62.7%37.5%

Advice: Double chance : Trofense or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.08 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.15 @ 188Bet
Away3.95 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.39 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.63 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.06 @ 188Bet
No1.80 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Trofense = 1.08 (league 1.25), Varzim = 0.53 (league 0.95)

Varzim
0 1 2 3 4 5
Trofense 0 20.0% 10.6% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.6% 11.4% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.7% 6.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.8% · Draw 33.2% · Away win 17.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1