Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 13:15 • Municipal das Laranjeiras
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.16 (league 1.28) 0.36 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
10.9% 62.6% 26.5%
best score tips
0 - 0
59.1%
0 - 1
21.4%
1 - 0
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
AD Marco 09
0 1 2 3 4 5
Paredes 0 59.1% 21.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
1 9.7% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricParedesAD Marco 09
Played55
Form33%47%
Attack50%25%
Defense50%83%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.22 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

31%
FT probability

2.5+

22%
FT probability

3.5+

16%
FT probability

BTTS

38%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Paredes AD Marco 09
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins0%0%0%33%0%17%
Draws100%67%83%67%100%83%
Loses0%33%17%0%0%0%

Form: Paredes: LDDDDD • AD Marco 09: DDDWDD

League goals

Metric Paredes AD Marco 09
HATHAT
GF total246303
GF avg0.71.31.01.00.00.5
GA total257202
GA avg0.71.71.20.70.00.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineParedesAD Marco 09
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%83%33%17%
1.533%33%17%17%
2.50%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricParedesAD Marco 09
HATHAT
Clean sheets101235
Failed to score112134

Penalties

MetricParedesAD Marco 09
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricParedesAD Marco 09
Wins01
Draws03
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——1-0—
Biggest losses—1-0——
Goals For1220
Goals Against1220

Model comparison

MetricParedesAD Marco 09
Form42%58%
Att67%33%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h20%80%
Goals0%100%
Total38.5%61.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or AD Marco 09 and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.79 @ 188Bet
Draw3.58 @ Pinnacle
Away5.19 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.50 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.61 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.31 @ Pinnacle
No1.64 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Paredes = 0.16 (league 1.28), AD Marco 09 = 0.36 (league 0.97)

AD Marco 09
0 1 2 3 4 5
Paredes 0 59.1% 21.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
1 9.7% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 10.9% · Draw 62.6% · Away win 26.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1