Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Oct 26 2025 • 15:00 • Estádio Conde Dias Garcia
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.05 (league 1.24) 0.95 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.2% 30.8% 31.9%
best score tips
1 - 0
14.2%
0 - 0
13.5%
1 - 1
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
Varzim
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sanjoanense 0 13.5% 12.8% 6.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.2% 13.5% 6.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 7.5% 7.1% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
3 2.6% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSanjoanenseVarzim
Played55
Form47%20%
Attack73%45%
Defense36%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sanjoanense Varzim
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins0%50%29%25%33%29%
Draws100%50%71%75%0%43%
Loses0%0%0%0%67%29%

Form: Sanjoanense: WDDDDDW • Varzim: WWLDDDL

League goals

Metric Sanjoanense Varzim
HATHAT
GF total46108210
GF avg1.31.51.42.00.71.4
GA total437437
GA avg1.30.81.01.01.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSanjoanenseVarzim
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%57%86%71%
1.571%43%29%29%
2.50%0%14%0%
3.50%0%14%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSanjoanenseVarzim
HATHAT
Clean sheets123112
Failed to score112011

Penalties

MetricSanjoanenseVarzim
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total04

Streaks

MetricSanjoanenseVarzim
Wins12
Draws53
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-24-00-1
Biggest losses———2-1
Goals For2241
Goals Against2222

Model comparison

MetricSanjoanenseVarzim
Form70%30%
Att62%38%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h20%80%
Goals23%77%
Total45.5%54.5%

Advice: Double chance : Sanjoanense or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.71 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ 188Bet
Away2.75 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.19 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.69 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.87 @ 188Bet
No1.94 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Sanjoanense = 1.05 (league 1.24), Varzim = 0.95 (league 0.96)

Varzim
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sanjoanense 0 13.5% 12.8% 6.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.2% 13.5% 6.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 7.5% 7.1% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
3 2.6% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.2% · Draw 30.8% · Away win 31.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1