Liga 3 — Portugal
Sat, Nov 1 2025 • 15:00 • Estádio Varzim Sport Club
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.82 (league 1.23) 0.53 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.4% 38.6% 22.0%
best score tips
0 - 0
26.1%
1 - 0
21.3%
0 - 1
13.8%
Score & goals probability table
AD Marco 09
0 1 2 3 4 5
Varzim 0 26.1% 13.8% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.3% 11.2% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.7% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVarzimAD Marco 09
Played55
Form27%40%
Attack62%31%
Defense31%62%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.64 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

51%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Varzim AD Marco 09
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins25%25%25%25%0%13%
Draws75%25%50%75%75%75%
Loses0%50%25%0%25%13%

Form: Varzim: WWLDDDLD • AD Marco 09: DDDWDDLD

League goals

Metric Varzim AD Marco 09
HATHAT
GF total8513404
GF avg2.01.31.61.00.00.5
GA total4610325
GA avg1.01.51.30.80.50.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVarzimAD Marco 09
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%75%38%38%
1.538%38%13%25%
2.525%13%0%0%
3.513%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVarzimAD Marco 09
HATHAT
Clean sheets112235
Failed to score011145

Penalties

MetricVarzimAD Marco 09
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total40

Streaks

MetricVarzimAD Marco 09
Wins21
Draws33
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-11-0—
Biggest losses—2-1—2-0
Goals For4320
Goals Against2322

Model comparison

MetricVarzimAD Marco 09
Form40%60%
Att67%33%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total47.7%52.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Varzim or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.82 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.44 @ Pinnacle
Away4.71 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.16 @ 188Bet
No1.75 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.29 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.63 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Varzim = 0.82 (league 1.23), AD Marco 09 = 0.53 (league 0.95)

AD Marco 09
0 1 2 3 4 5
Varzim 0 26.1% 13.8% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.3% 11.2% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.7% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.4% · Draw 38.6% · Away win 22.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1