Liga 3 — Portugal
Sat, Nov 29 2025 • 15:00 • Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe
Match Finished
2 - 1
Expected Goals
1.46 (league 1.23) 0.42 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.1% 26.1% 10.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
22.2%
2 - 0
16.3%
0 - 0
15.2%
Score & goals probability table
Paredes
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fafe 0 15.2% 6.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 22.2% 9.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 16.3% 6.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 8.0% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFafeParedes
Played55
Form67%53%
Attack70%60%
Defense80%70%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.43 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

57%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

56%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fafe Paredes
HATHAT
Played55106410
Wins60%0%30%33%0%20%
Draws20%60%40%67%50%60%
Loses20%40%30%0%50%20%

Form: Fafe: LDDLDWWWLD • Paredes: LDDDDDWLDW

League goals

Metric Fafe Paredes
HATHAT
GF total64106410
GF avg1.20.81.01.01.01.0
GA total2911268
GA avg0.41.81.10.31.50.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFafeParedes
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%60%60%60%
1.520%20%40%20%
2.510%10%0%0%
3.50%10%0%0%
4.50%10%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFafeParedes
HATHAT
Clean sheets404404
Failed to score213224

Penalties

MetricFafeParedes
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricFafeParedes
Wins31
Draws25
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-0—2-0—
Biggest losses0-25-1—1-0
Goals For3122
Goals Against2512

Model comparison

MetricFafeParedes
Form56%44%
Att54%46%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution74%26%
H2h71%29%
Goals67%33%
Total63.7%36.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Fafe or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.20 @ Unibet
Draw3.30 @ Bet365
Away3.75 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.43 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.62 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.03 @ Pinnacle
No1.83 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Fafe = 1.46 (league 1.23), Paredes = 0.42 (league 0.95)

Paredes
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fafe 0 15.2% 6.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 22.2% 9.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 16.3% 6.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 8.0% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.1% · Draw 26.1% · Away win 10.4%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1