Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Dec 7 2025 • 17:30 • Municipal de Marco de Canaveses
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.73 (league 1.25) 0.64 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
62.9% 22.9% 13.3%
best score tips
1 - 0
16.2%
2 - 0
14.0%
1 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
Fafe
0 1 2 3 4 5
AD Marco 09 0 9.4% 6.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 16.2% 10.3% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.0% 8.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 8.1% 5.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 3.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAD Marco 09Fafe
Played55
Form27%67%
Attack29%50%
Defense50%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.43 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

41%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AD Marco 09 Fafe
HATHAT
Played56116511
Wins40%0%18%67%0%36%
Draws60%50%55%17%60%36%
Loses0%50%27%17%40%27%

Form: AD Marco 09: DDDWDDLDLLW • Fafe: LDDLDWWWLDW

League goals

Metric AD Marco 09 Fafe
HATHAT
GF total6178412
GF avg1.20.20.61.30.81.1
GA total4593912
GA avg0.80.80.80.51.81.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAD Marco 09Fafe
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.545%55%73%64%
1.518%27%27%18%
2.50%0%9%9%
3.50%0%0%9%
4.50%0%0%9%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAD Marco 09Fafe
HATHAT
Clean sheets235404
Failed to score156213

Penalties

MetricAD Marco 09Fafe
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricAD Marco 09Fafe
Wins13
Draws32
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—3-0—
Biggest losses—2-00-25-1
Goals For2131
Goals Against2225

Model comparison

MetricAD Marco 09Fafe
Form29%71%
Att36%64%
Def30%70%
Poisson Distribution70%30%
H2h50%50%
Goals0%0%
Total43.0%57.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Fafe

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.50 @ Unibet
Draw3.30 @ Bet365
Away2.31 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.70 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.18 @ 188Bet
No1.87 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): AD Marco 09 = 1.73 (league 1.25), Fafe = 0.64 (league 1.00)

Fafe
0 1 2 3 4 5
AD Marco 09 0 9.4% 6.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 16.2% 10.3% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 14.0% 8.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 8.1% 5.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 3.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 62.9% · Draw 22.9% · Away win 13.3%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1