Liga 3 — Portugal
Sat, Dec 20 2025 • 17:30 • Estádio Varzim Sport Club
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.06 (league 1.25) 0.89 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
38.9% 31.2% 29.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
15.1%
0 - 0
14.3%
1 - 1
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
Trofense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Varzim 0 14.3% 12.6% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.1% 13.4% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.0% 7.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 2.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVarzimTrofense
Played55
Form60%40%
Attack50%33%
Defense75%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Varzim Trofense
HATHAT
Played76137613
Wins43%17%31%43%33%38%
Draws57%50%54%29%67%46%
Loses0%33%15%29%0%15%

Form: Varzim: WWLDDDLDWDDWD • Trofense: DWDWWLWDLDDDW

League goals

Metric Varzim Trofense
HATHAT
GF total1361911617
GF avg1.91.01.51.61.01.3
GA total67136410
GA avg0.91.21.00.90.70.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVarzimTrofense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%69%69%69%
1.538%23%38%8%
2.523%8%8%0%
3.58%0%8%0%
4.50%0%8%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVarzimTrofense
HATHAT
Clean sheets224224
Failed to score123224

Penalties

MetricVarzimTrofense
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total42

Streaks

MetricVarzimTrofense
Wins22
Draws33
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-15-11-2
Biggest losses—2-11-2—
Goals For4352
Goals Against2321

Model comparison

MetricVarzimTrofense
Form60%40%
Att60%40%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h20%80%
Goals35%65%
Total47.2%52.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Varzim or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.30 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.52 @ Pinnacle
Away3.10 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.32 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.68 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ Pinnacle
No1.85 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Varzim = 1.06 (league 1.25), Trofense = 0.89 (league 1.01)

Trofense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Varzim 0 14.3% 12.6% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.1% 13.4% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.0% 7.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 2.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 38.9% · Draw 31.2% · Away win 29.8%

vtt 2 , vtd1