Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 11:00 • Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.25) 0.80 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
31.1% 35.8% 33.0%
best score tips
0 - 0
20.9%
0 - 1
16.7%
1 - 0
16.0%
Score & goals probability table
Guimaraes B
0 1 2 3 4 5
Trofense 0 20.9% 16.7% 6.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 16.0% 12.8% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 6.1% 4.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTrofenseGuimaraes B
Played55
Form60%67%
Attack23%27%
Defense86%82%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

56%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Trofense Guimaraes B
HATHAT
Played77147714
Wins43%43%43%43%29%36%
Draws29%57%43%14%57%36%
Loses29%0%14%43%14%29%

Form: Trofense: DWDWWLWDLDDDWW • Guimaraes B: DLWDDLDLWWWWDL

League goals

Metric Trofense Guimaraes B
HATHAT
GF total117188614
GF avg1.61.01.31.10.91.0
GA total64108412
GA avg0.90.60.71.10.60.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTrofenseGuimaraes B
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%64%71%50%
1.536%7%29%21%
2.57%0%0%14%
3.57%0%0%0%
4.57%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTrofenseGuimaraes B
HATHAT
Clean sheets235437
Failed to score224134

Penalties

MetricTrofenseGuimaraes B
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total24

Streaks

MetricTrofenseGuimaraes B
Wins24
Draws32
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-11-22-00-2
Biggest losses1-2—1-31-0
Goals For5222
Goals Against2131

Model comparison

MetricTrofenseGuimaraes B
Form47%53%
Att45%55%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h100%0%
Goals67%33%
Total52.8%47.2%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Trofense or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.02 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.35 @ Unibet
Away4.06 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.46 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ Pinnacle
No1.75 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Trofense = 0.77 (league 1.25), Guimaraes B = 0.80 (league 1.01)

Guimaraes B
0 1 2 3 4 5
Trofense 0 20.9% 16.7% 6.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 16.0% 12.8% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 6.1% 4.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.1% · Draw 35.8% · Away win 33.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1