Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 15:00 • Campo Nº5 Complexo Desportivo Dr. António Pimenta
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.97 (league 1.25) 0.95 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
34.7% 31.6% 33.6%
best score tips
0 - 0
14.6%
1 - 0
14.2%
0 - 1
13.9%
Score & goals probability table
Varzim
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guimaraes B 0 14.6% 13.9% 6.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.2% 13.5% 6.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 6.9% 6.6% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 2.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGuimaraes BVarzim
Played55
Form67%33%
Attack35%24%
Defense76%76%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Guimaraes B Varzim
HATHAT
Played78158715
Wins43%38%40%38%14%27%
Draws14%50%33%50%43%47%
Loses43%13%27%13%43%27%

Form: Guimaraes B: DLWDDLDLWWWWDLW • Varzim: WWLDDDLDWDDWDLL

League goals

Metric Guimaraes B Varzim
HATHAT
GF total871513619
GF avg1.10.91.01.60.91.3
GA total84127815
GA avg1.10.50.80.91.11.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGuimaraes BVarzim
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%47%67%73%
1.527%20%33%20%
2.50%13%20%7%
3.50%0%7%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGuimaraes BVarzim
HATHAT
Clean sheets448224
Failed to score134235

Penalties

MetricGuimaraes BVarzim
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total44

Streaks

MetricGuimaraes BVarzim
Wins42
Draws23
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-24-00-1
Biggest losses1-31-00-12-1
Goals For2243
Goals Against3123

Model comparison

MetricGuimaraes BVarzim
Form67%33%
Att60%40%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h62%38%
Goals50%50%
Total56.7%43.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Guimaraes B or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.50 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away3.07 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.29 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.65 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.94 @ 188Bet
No1.91 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Guimaraes B = 0.97 (league 1.25), Varzim = 0.95 (league 1.04)

Varzim
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guimaraes B 0 14.6% 13.9% 6.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
1 14.2% 13.5% 6.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 6.9% 6.6% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 2.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 34.7% · Draw 31.6% · Away win 33.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1