Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 17:30 • Estádio Municipal do Marco de Canaveses
Not Started
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Expected Goals
1.35 (league 1.25) 0.99 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
44.9% 27.5% 27.3%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.0%
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 0
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
Paredes
0 1 2 3 4 5
AD Marco 09 0 9.6% 9.5% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
1 13.0% 12.9% 6.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.8% 8.7% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 4.0% 3.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAD Marco 09Paredes
Played55
Form47%53%
Attack62%54%
Defense38%77%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

60%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AD Marco 09 Paredes
HATHAT
Played78158715
Wins43%0%20%38%14%27%
Draws57%38%47%63%43%53%
Loses0%63%33%0%43%20%

Form: AD Marco 09: DDDWDDLDLLWDLWL • Paredes: LDDDDDWLDWLDDWW

League goals

Metric AD Marco 09 Paredes
HATHAT
GF total94139817
GF avg1.30.50.91.11.11.1
GA total610162911
GA avg0.91.31.10.31.30.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAD Marco 09Paredes
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%67%60%53%
1.527%33%40%20%
2.50%7%13%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAD Marco 09Paredes
HATHAT
Clean sheets235617
Failed to score156336

Penalties

MetricAD Marco 09Paredes
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricAD Marco 09Paredes
Wins11
Draws35
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—3-01-3
Biggest losses—2-0—2-1
Goals For2233
Goals Against2312

Model comparison

MetricAD Marco 09Paredes
Form47%53%
Att53%47%
Def27%73%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h62%38%
Goals60%40%
Total50.8%49.2%

Advice: Double chance : AD Marco 09 or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.86 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.00 @ Bet365
Away2.67 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.17 @ 188Bet
No1.73 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.56 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AD Marco 09 = 1.35 (league 1.25), Paredes = 0.99 (league 1.00)

Paredes
0 1 2 3 4 5
AD Marco 09 0 9.6% 9.5% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
1 13.0% 12.9% 6.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.8% 8.7% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 4.0% 3.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.9% · Draw 27.5% · Away win 27.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1