Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Jan 25 2026 • 15:00 • Estádio Municipal do Marco de Canaveses
Not Started
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Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.23) 1.09 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.1% 30.2% 37.6%
best score tips
0 - 1
13.8%
1 - 1
13.5%
0 - 0
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
Varzim
0 1 2 3 4 5
AD Marco 09 0 12.7% 13.8% 7.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
1 12.4% 13.5% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
2 6.1% 6.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 2.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAD Marco 09Varzim
Played55
Form40%47%
Attack100%80%
Defense0%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.83 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AD Marco 09 Varzim
HATHAT
Played89179817
Wins38%11%24%44%25%35%
Draws50%33%41%44%38%41%
Loses13%56%35%11%38%24%

Form: AD Marco 09: DDDWDDLDLLWDLWLLW • Varzim: WWLDDDLDWDDWDLLWW

League goals

Metric AD Marco 09 Varzim
HATHAT
GF total951415823
GF avg1.10.60.81.71.01.4
GA total910197916
GA avg1.11.11.10.81.10.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAD Marco 09Varzim
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.559%65%71%71%
1.524%35%41%18%
2.50%12%18%6%
3.50%0%6%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAD Marco 09Varzim
HATHAT
Clean sheets246325
Failed to score257235

Penalties

MetricAD Marco 09Varzim
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total04

Streaks

MetricAD Marco 09Varzim
Wins12
Draws33
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-14-01-2
Biggest losses0-32-00-12-1
Goals For2243
Goals Against3323

Model comparison

MetricAD Marco 09Varzim
Form46%54%
Att60%40%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h0%100%
Goals33%67%
Total42.2%57.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Varzim

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.62 @ 1xBet
Draw3.14 @ Pinnacle
Away2.16 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.10 @ Betfair
No1.75 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.42 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AD Marco 09 = 0.98 (league 1.23), Varzim = 1.09 (league 1.01)

Varzim
0 1 2 3 4 5
AD Marco 09 0 12.7% 13.8% 7.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
1 12.4% 13.5% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
2 6.1% 6.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 2.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.1% · Draw 30.2% · Away win 37.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1