Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 16:00 • Estádio EFAPEL
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.79 (league 1.24) 0.31 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
81.8% 9.4% 2.4%
best score tips
2 - 0
17.5%
3 - 0
16.3%
1 - 0
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
SC Covilha
0 1 2 3 4 5
Academica 0 4.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 12.5% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 17.5% 5.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 16.3% 5.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 11.3% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 6.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAcademicaSC Covilha
Played55
Form60%20%
Attack73%27%
Defense64%55%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Academica SC Covilha
HATHAT
Played325325
Wins100%0%60%0%0%0%
Draws0%0%0%67%50%60%
Loses0%100%40%33%50%40%

Form: Academica: LWLWW • SC Covilha: LLDDD

League goals

Metric Academica SC Covilha
HATHAT
GF total718123
GF avg2.30.51.60.31.00.6
GA total134235
GA avg0.31.50.80.71.51.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAcademicaSC Covilha
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%60%60%80%
1.540%20%0%20%
2.520%0%0%0%
3.520%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAcademicaSC Covilha
HATHAT
Clean sheets202101
Failed to score011202

Penalties

MetricAcademicaSC Covilha
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricAcademicaSC Covilha
Wins10
Draws00
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-1———
Biggest losses—2-10-12-1
Goals For4111
Goals Against1212

Model comparison

MetricAcademicaSC Covilha
Form75%25%
Att73%27%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution88%12%
H2h75%25%
Goals56%44%
Total70.5%29.5%

Advice: Winner : Academica

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.66 @ Unibet
Draw4.10 @ Pinnacle
Away5.55 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.95 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.91 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ Pinnacle
No1.85 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Academica = 2.79 (league 1.24), SC Covilha = 0.31 (league 0.96)

SC Covilha
0 1 2 3 4 5
Academica 0 4.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 12.5% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 17.5% 5.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 16.3% 5.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 11.3% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 6.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 81.8% · Draw 9.4% · Away win 2.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1