Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 15:00 • Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto
Not Started
Expected Goals
0.62 (league 1.25) 2.37 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
8.0% 15.6% 73.0%
best score tips
0 - 2
14.1%
0 - 1
11.9%
0 - 3
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
Academica
0 1 2 3 4 5
SC Covilha 0 5.0% 11.9% 14.1% 11.1% 6.6% 3.1%
1 3.1% 7.4% 8.8% 6.9% 4.1% 1.9%
2 1.0% 2.3% 2.7% 2.2% 1.3% 0.6%
3 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSC CovilhaAcademica
Played55
Form13%60%
Attack23%92%
Defense23%46%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.612 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

70%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric SC Covilha Academica
HATHAT
Played78158715
Wins14%13%13%50%29%40%
Draws43%38%40%38%43%40%
Loses43%50%47%13%29%20%

Form: SC Covilha: LLDDDWLDLWDDLLL • Academica: LWLWWLWDDDDDDWW

League goals

Metric SC Covilha Academica
HATHAT
GF total459141226
GF avg0.60.60.61.81.71.7
GA total1011217916
GA avg1.41.41.40.91.31.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSC CovilhaAcademica
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.553%80%80%73%
1.57%40%47%20%
2.50%13%33%13%
3.50%7%13%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSC CovilhaAcademica
HATHAT
Clean sheets123314
Failed to score437213

Penalties

MetricSC CovilhaAcademica
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total05

Streaks

MetricSC CovilhaAcademica
Wins12
Draws36
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-14-11-4
Biggest losses0-43-00-12-1
Goals For2144
Goals Against4333

Model comparison

MetricSC CovilhaAcademica
Form18%82%
Att20%80%
Def41%59%
Poisson Distribution18%82%
H2h38%62%
Goals47%53%
Total30.3%69.7%

Advice: Winner : Academica

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.55 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.59 @ Pinnacle
Away1.77 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.90 @ 188Bet
No1.91 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.01 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.82 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): SC Covilha = 0.62 (league 1.25), Academica = 2.37 (league 1.00)

Academica
0 1 2 3 4 5
SC Covilha 0 5.0% 11.9% 14.1% 11.1% 6.6% 3.1%
1 3.1% 7.4% 8.8% 6.9% 4.1% 1.9%
2 1.0% 2.3% 2.7% 2.2% 1.3% 0.6%
3 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 8.0% · Draw 15.6% · Away win 73.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1