Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade de Bon-Rencontre
Expected Goals
1.24 (league 1.45)
1.84 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 25.7% | 22.9% | 50.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
1 - 2
9.6%
0 - 1
8.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Rumilly Vallières | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Toulon | 0 | 4.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Toulon -13.4, Rumilly Vallières -16.6.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Toulon
vs
Rumilly Vallières
Elo gapRumilly Vallières +16
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo2987
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2987
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Toulon | Rumilly Vallières |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1467.9 | 1519.1 |
| Form Elo | 1458.4 | 1504.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.6 | 1509.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1521.7 | 1549.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1437.9 | 1524.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.4 | -16.6 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Toulon last-5 Elo change: -13.4; Rumilly Vallières last-5 Elo change: -16.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Toulon | Rumilly Vallières |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 33% |
| Attack | 54% | 69% |
| Defense | 15% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Toulon | Rumilly Vallières | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 23% | 23% | 23% | 38% | 46% | 42% |
| Draws | 46% | 15% | 31% | 46% | 15% | 31% |
| Loses | 31% | 62% | 46% | 15% | 38% | 27% |
ToulonDWLLWDWDLWLLDDLLLLDWDLWLDL
Rumilly VallièresDWLWDWWDWWWWDLWLDLWLDLDWDL
League goals
| Metric | Toulon | Rumilly Vallières | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 14 | 33 | 20 | 23 | 43 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 16 | 28 | 44 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Toulon | Rumilly Vallières | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 85% | 96% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 54% | 38% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 19% | 23% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 8% | 4% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Toulon | Rumilly Vallières | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Toulon | Rumilly Vallières |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Toulon | Rumilly Vallières |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-3 | 3-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 5-1 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Toulon | Rumilly Vallières |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 39% | 61% |
| Poisson Distribution | 39% | 61% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 53% | 47% |
| Total | 42.8% | 57.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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