Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 15:00 •
Stade Ludovic Giuly
Expected Goals
0.58 (league 1.45)
1.19 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 18.1% | 31.0% | 50.7% |
best score tips
0 - 1
20.3%
0 - 0
17.1%
0 - 2
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Hyères | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chasselay MDA | 0 | 17.1% | 20.2% | 12.0% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Chasselay MDA carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 24 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chasselay MDA +3.6, Hyères -4.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Chasselay MDA
vs
Hyères
Elo gapChasselay MDA +24
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3016.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3016.8
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Chasselay MDA | Hyères |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1502.7 | 1514.1 |
| Form Elo | 1506.9 | 1514.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1487.9 | 1519.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1480.5 | 1461.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1424 | 1579.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.6 | -4.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Chasselay MDA last-5 Elo change: +3.6; Hyères last-5 Elo change: -4.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chasselay MDA | Hyères |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 47% |
| Attack | 46% | 46% |
| Defense | 54% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chasselay MDA | Hyères | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 46% | 31% | 38% | 38% | 31% | 35% |
| Draws | 23% | 31% | 27% | 31% | 46% | 38% |
| Loses | 31% | 38% | 35% | 31% | 23% | 27% |
Chasselay MDAWDWLLWWLWWWDLLLDDLDDWLLWWD
HyèresWDWDDLLDDDWLWWLDWLDWDWWDLL
League goals
| Metric | Chasselay MDA | Hyères | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 18 | 34 | 16 | 13 | 29 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 18 | 21 | 39 | 15 | 9 | 24 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chasselay MDA | Hyères | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 73% | 69% | 58% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 42% | 27% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 19% | 12% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 8% | 4% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chasselay MDA | Hyères | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chasselay MDA | Hyères |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chasselay MDA | Hyères |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chasselay MDA | Hyères |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 34% | 66% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 46.0% | 54.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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