Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stades de la Paoute
Expected Goals
1.35 (league 1.45)
1.90 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.0% | 22.3% | 49.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.0%
1 - 2
9.5%
0 - 1
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Istres | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Grasse | 0 | 3.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Grasse +31.2, Istres +4.1.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Grasse
vs
Istres
Elo gapIstres +1
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo3054.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3054.7
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Grasse | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1509.3 | 1545.4 |
| Form Elo | 1512.5 | 1537.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.6 | 1544.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1510.8 | 1545.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1511.6 | 1577 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +31.2 | +4.1 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Grasse last-5 Elo change: +31.2; Istres last-5 Elo change: +4.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Grasse | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 53% |
| Attack | 85% | 62% |
| Defense | 38% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Grasse | Istres | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 31% | 31% | 31% | 38% | 46% | 42% |
| Draws | 38% | 23% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Loses | 31% | 46% | 38% | 31% | 23% | 27% |
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IstresLWLDDDWWLWWDDWWWLWDLLLDWDW
League goals
| Metric | Grasse | Istres | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 16 | 35 | 18 | 21 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 18 | 18 | 36 | 8 | 17 | 25 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Grasse | Istres | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 69% | 77% | 73% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 42% | 38% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 15% | 19% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 19% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Grasse | Istres | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Grasse | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Grasse | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 2-5 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Grasse | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 42% | 58% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 48.2% | 51.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.39 @ Dafabet
Draw3.30 @ Dafabet
Away2.85 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.72 @ Marathonbet
No1.96 @ 1xBet
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League standings
Loading standings…