Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade des Antonins
Expected Goals
1.45 (league 1.45)
0.76 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | 26.9% | 19.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.9%
1 - 1
12.1%
2 - 0
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Cannes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nimes | 0 | 11.0% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.9% | 12.1% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.5% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Cannes carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 33 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Nimes +28.7, Cannes +17.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Nimes
vs
Cannes
Elo gapCannes +33
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3177.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3177.7
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Nimes | Cannes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1554.9 | 1622.8 |
| Form Elo | 1586 | 1639.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1537.1 | 1549 |
| Attack Elo | 1477.8 | 1688 |
| Defense Elo | 1588.2 | 1588.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +28.7 | +17.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Nimes last-5 Elo change: +28.7; Cannes last-5 Elo change: +17.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nimes | Cannes |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 80% |
| Attack | 62% | 100% |
| Defense | 69% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nimes | Cannes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 69% | 46% | 58% | 69% | 38% | 54% |
| Draws | 15% | 23% | 19% | 23% | 46% | 35% |
| Loses | 15% | 31% | 23% | 8% | 15% | 12% |
NimesWLWWDDWWLWLWDDLLWWWWDWWWLW
CannesDDWLDDLWWWWDDWWDWWDWDWLWWW
League goals
| Metric | Nimes | Cannes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 11 | 36 | 26 | 20 | 46 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 8 | 11 | 19 | 11 | 14 | 25 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nimes | Cannes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 42% | 85% | 58% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 27% | 46% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 4% | 35% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nimes | Cannes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nimes | Cannes |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nimes | Cannes |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nimes | Cannes |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 51.8% | 48.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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