Sat, May 2 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Louis Hon
Expected Goals
1.83 (league 1.44)
1.68 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 41.0% | 22.2% | 35.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.2%
2 - 1
8.4%
1 - 2
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Toulon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fréjus St-Raphaël | 0 | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Fréjus St-Raphaël -10.4, Toulon +5.7.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Fréjus St-Raphaël
vs
Toulon
Elo gapFréjus St-Raphaël +14
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo2937
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2937
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Fréjus St-Raphaël | Toulon |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1458.2 | 1478.8 |
| Form Elo | 1459.9 | 1480.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1454.7 | 1473.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1485.3 | 1525.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1393.9 | 1441.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.4 | +5.7 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Fréjus St-Raphaël last-5 Elo change: -10.4; Toulon last-5 Elo change: +5.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fréjus St-Raphaël | Toulon |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 47% |
| Attack | 31% | 50% |
| Defense | 38% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fréjus St-Raphaël | Toulon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 23% | 36% | 30% | 29% | 23% | 26% |
| Draws | 23% | 36% | 30% | 43% | 15% | 30% |
| Loses | 54% | 29% | 41% | 29% | 62% | 44% |
Fréjus St-RaphaëlWWLWDLWLDLWLDDLLLWWDDLDLLWD
ToulonDWLLWDWDLWLLDDLLLLDWDLWLDLW
League goals
| Metric | Fréjus St-Raphaël | Toulon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 20 | 36 | 21 | 14 | 35 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 23 | 25 | 48 | 17 | 28 | 45 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fréjus St-Raphaël | Toulon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 89% | 78% | 85% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 48% | 37% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 26% | 11% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 15% | 4% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fréjus St-Raphaël | Toulon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fréjus St-Raphaël | Toulon |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fréjus St-Raphaël | Toulon |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-0 | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fréjus St-Raphaël | Toulon |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 36% | 64% |
| Goals | 38% | 63% |
| Total | 43.0% | 57.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…