Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stadium Plaine
Expected Goals
2.01 (league 1.36)
1.27 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 52.9% | 21.5% | 23.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.7%
1 - 1
9.6%
2 - 0
7.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Chantilly | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Thionville Lusitanos | 0 | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Thionville Lusitanos carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 182 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Thionville Lusitanos +22.2, Chantilly -4.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Thionville Lusitanos
vs
Chantilly
Elo gapThionville Lusitanos +182
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share74%
Combined Elo3067.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3067.1
Elo home share
74%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Thionville Lusitanos | Chantilly |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1606.8 | 1460.3 |
| Form Elo | 1621.6 | 1448.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1517.6 | 1517.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1616.4 | 1472.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1537.7 | 1509.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.2 | -4.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Thionville Lusitanos last-5 Elo change: +22.2; Chantilly last-5 Elo change: -4.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Thionville Lusitanos | Chantilly |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 33% |
| Attack | 73% | 55% |
| Defense | 73% | 45% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
78%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Thionville Lusitanos | Chantilly | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 14 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 58% | 71% | 65% | 8% | 31% | 19% |
| Draws | 25% | 21% | 23% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Loses | 17% | 7% | 12% | 62% | 38% | 50% |
Thionville LusitanosLWWWWWWWWWWWDWDLLDWDWWDWWD
ChantillyLLLWLWLDDWDLLDLWLDLLDLLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Thionville Lusitanos | Chantilly | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 24 | 49 | 10 | 15 | 25 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 14 | 10 | 24 | 16 | 17 | 33 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Thionville Lusitanos | Chantilly | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 58% | 65% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 54% | 27% | 23% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 8% | 8% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Thionville Lusitanos | Chantilly | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Thionville Lusitanos | Chantilly |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Thionville Lusitanos | Chantilly |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 11 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 1-0 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Thionville Lusitanos | Chantilly |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 88% | 13% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 68.7% | 31.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.65 @ Unibet
Draw3.90 @ Marathonbet
Away6.35 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.00 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.01 @ Marathonbet
No1.70 @ Betano
📊
League standings
Loading standings…