Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Atlantique
Expected Goals
1.99 (league 1.41)
1.08 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 56.9% | 21.5% | 20.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.0%
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 0
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Montlouis | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bordeaux | 0 | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.2% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.1% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Bordeaux carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 114 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bordeaux -20.8, Montlouis -27.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Bordeaux
vs
Montlouis
Elo gapBordeaux +114
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo3097.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3097.7
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Bordeaux | Montlouis |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1588.4 | 1509.3 |
| Form Elo | 1587.8 | 1496.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1534.9 | 1510.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1552.2 | 1527 |
| Defense Elo | 1571.9 | 1495.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -20.8 | -27.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Bordeaux last-5 Elo change: -20.8; Montlouis last-5 Elo change: -27.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bordeaux | Montlouis |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 27% |
| Attack | 73% | 45% |
| Defense | 18% | 9% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bordeaux | Montlouis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 62% | 62% | 62% | 38% | 15% | 27% |
| Draws | 15% | 15% | 15% | 23% | 31% | 27% |
| Loses | 23% | 23% | 23% | 38% | 54% | 46% |
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MontlouisDLLLLWLWWLLDDLDWWLDDWDLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Bordeaux | Montlouis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 23 | 41 | 19 | 19 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 11 | 12 | 23 | 17 | 26 | 43 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bordeaux | Montlouis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 58% | 88% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 54% | 23% | 42% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 8% | 12% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bordeaux | Montlouis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bordeaux | Montlouis |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bordeaux | Montlouis |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 2-1 | 1-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bordeaux | Montlouis |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 62% | 38% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 63% | 37% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 56.3% | 43.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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