Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 15:00 •
Stade des Rives du Thouet
Expected Goals
1.48 (league 1.41)
1.63 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 34.4% | 23.8% | 40.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.8%
1 - 2
8.8%
2 - 1
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Lorient II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Saumur | 0 | 4.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Saumur -21.5, Lorient II -19.2.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Saumur
vs
Lorient II
Elo gapLorient II +10
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo2886.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2886.6
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Saumur | Lorient II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1421 | 1465.6 |
| Form Elo | 1405.3 | 1440.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1455.8 | 1481 |
| Attack Elo | 1443.5 | 1492.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1369.7 | 1459.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -21.5 | -19.2 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Saumur last-5 Elo change: -21.5; Lorient II last-5 Elo change: -19.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Saumur | Lorient II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 40% |
| Attack | 36% | 55% |
| Defense | 0% | 18% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Saumur | Lorient II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 38% | 8% | 23% | 38% | 31% | 35% |
| Draws | 8% | 54% | 31% | 23% | 0% | 12% |
| Loses | 54% | 38% | 46% | 38% | 69% | 54% |
SaumurLLWLLWLWDLDWDDWDLLWDLDLLLD
Lorient IILLLDWWWLWWLLDLWLWDLLLWLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Saumur | Lorient II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 16 | 33 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 20 | 25 | 45 | 21 | 21 | 42 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Saumur | Lorient II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 62% | 85% | 65% | 85% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 54% | 38% | 54% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 23% | 12% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 8% | 4% | 12% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Saumur | Lorient II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Saumur | Lorient II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Saumur | Lorient II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-4 | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-4 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Saumur | Lorient II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 48% | 52% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 40.0% | 60.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…