Sat, May 2 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Municipal
Expected Goals
1.15 (league 1.41)
0.57 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | 31.7% | 18.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
20.7%
0 - 0
18.0%
2 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Poitiers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chauray | 0 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.9% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Chauray carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 109 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chauray +28.4, Poitiers -14.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Chauray
vs
Poitiers
Elo gapChauray +109
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo2939.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2939.4
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Chauray | Poitiers |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1506.9 | 1432.5 |
| Form Elo | 1515.3 | 1426.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.2 | 1460.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1483.5 | 1391.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1536.4 | 1444.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +28.4 | -14.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Chauray last-5 Elo change: +28.4; Poitiers last-5 Elo change: -14.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chauray | Poitiers |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 13% |
| Attack | 100% | 50% |
| Defense | 40% | 20% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chauray | Poitiers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 38% | 29% | 33% | 29% | 15% | 22% |
| Draws | 15% | 21% | 19% | 43% | 23% | 33% |
| Loses | 46% | 50% | 48% | 29% | 62% | 44% |
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League goals
| Metric | Chauray | Poitiers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 17 | 29 | 11 | 9 | 20 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 12 | 21 | 33 | 12 | 24 | 36 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chauray | Poitiers | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 78% | 56% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 37% | 26% | 19% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 15% | 0% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chauray | Poitiers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chauray | Poitiers |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chauray | Poitiers |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 4-2 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chauray | Poitiers |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 83% | 17% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 68.6% | 31.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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