Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Complexe Champlevert - Terrain Pierre Guerin
Expected Goals
1.86 (league 1.62)
0.61 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 66.1% | 21.2% | 11.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.7%
2 - 0
14.6%
1 - 1
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Union Cosnoise | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mâcon | 0 | 8.5% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.7% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.6% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.0% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Mâcon carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 186 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mâcon +22.4, Union Cosnoise -20.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Mâcon
vs
Union Cosnoise
Elo gapMâcon +186
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share74%
Combined Elo3034.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3034.9
Elo home share
74%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Mâcon | Union Cosnoise |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1593 | 1441.9 |
| Form Elo | 1617.9 | 1424.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1545.4 | 1491.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1597.9 | 1423.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1579.4 | 1481.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.4 | -20.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Mâcon last-5 Elo change: +22.4; Union Cosnoise last-5 Elo change: -20.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mâcon | Union Cosnoise |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 27% |
| Attack | 100% | 83% |
| Defense | 33% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mâcon | Union Cosnoise | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 73% | 50% | 61% | 25% | 9% | 17% |
| Draws | 27% | 25% | 26% | 25% | 45% | 35% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 13% | 50% | 45% | 48% |
MâconLDLDWWDWWWLWWWWDWWWWWDD
Union CosnoiseLWLLLDDWDWLLDLDDLDDLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Mâcon | Union Cosnoise | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 23 | 45 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 9 | 12 | 21 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mâcon | Union Cosnoise | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 52% | 57% | 87% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 26% | 30% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mâcon | Union Cosnoise | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mâcon | Union Cosnoise |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mâcon | Union Cosnoise |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-6 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mâcon | Union Cosnoise |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 73% | 27% |
| Att | 72% | 28% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 91% | 9% |
| Total | 75.8% | 24.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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