Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Maurice Trélut 2 - Terrain B
Expected Goals
2.57 (league 1.41)
1.98 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.6% | 18.6% | 28.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
6.9%
2 - 2
6.8%
3 - 1
5.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Lège-Cap-Ferret | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tarbes | 0 | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 2.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 3.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 3.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Tarbes carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 88 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tarbes +20.9, Lège-Cap-Ferret -6.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Tarbes
vs
Lège-Cap-Ferret
Elo gapTarbes +88
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3033.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3033.3
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Tarbes | Lège-Cap-Ferret |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1543.3 | 1490 |
| Form Elo | 1553.6 | 1486.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1507.7 | 1505.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1522.4 | 1538.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1570.1 | 1426.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.9 | -6.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Tarbes last-5 Elo change: +20.9; Lège-Cap-Ferret last-5 Elo change: -6.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tarbes | Lège-Cap-Ferret |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 60% | 60% |
| Defense | 80% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tarbes | Lège-Cap-Ferret | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 21 |
| Wins | 43% | 44% | 44% | 30% | 18% | 24% |
| Draws | 43% | 33% | 38% | 30% | 55% | 43% |
| Loses | 14% | 22% | 19% | 40% | 27% | 33% |
TarbesWDWLDDWWDDLDWWLW
Lège-Cap-FerretLLDDLLWDDWLDWDDWDDWLL
League goals
| Metric | Tarbes | Lège-Cap-Ferret | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 12 | 25 | 10 | 20 | 30 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 9 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 36 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tarbes | Lège-Cap-Ferret | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 56% | 76% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 19% | 38% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 6% | 19% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 6% | 5% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tarbes | Lège-Cap-Ferret | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tarbes | Lège-Cap-Ferret |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tarbes | Lège-Cap-Ferret |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-4 | 3-1 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tarbes | Lège-Cap-Ferret |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 62.8% | 37.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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