Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:30 •
Complexe Sportif de Lautard
Expected Goals
1.37 (league 1.41)
1.07 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.4% | 27.1% | 29.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.8%
1 - 0
12.0%
0 - 1
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Agde | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Castanet | 0 | 8.8% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.0% | 12.8% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.2% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Castanet carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 18 points. This sits in the thin confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Castanet -29.6, Agde -34.4.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Castanet
vs
Agde
Elo gapCastanet +18
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2928.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2928.9
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Castanet | Agde |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1455.9 | 1473 |
| Form Elo | 1431.5 | 1465.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.7 | 1493.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1462 | 1433.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1486.4 | 1511.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -29.6 | -34.4 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Castanet last-5 Elo change: -29.6; Agde last-5 Elo change: -34.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Castanet | Agde |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 20% |
| Attack | 20% | 20% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Castanet | Agde | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 11 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 18 |
| Wins | 22% | 18% | 20% | 36% | 14% | 28% |
| Draws | 44% | 18% | 30% | 18% | 43% | 28% |
| Loses | 33% | 64% | 50% | 45% | 43% | 44% |
CastanetWLDDLWDLWLWLDLDDLLLL
AgdeDLLWDWLLDWWDDLLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Castanet | Agde | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 8 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 13 | 17 | 30 | 14 | 11 | 25 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Castanet | Agde | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 55% | 75% | 67% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 45% | 22% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 20% | 0% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Castanet | Agde | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Castanet | Agde |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Castanet | Agde |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Castanet | Agde |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 38% | 62% |
| Total | 42.5% | 57.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…