Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 17:00 •
Stade Du Hameau Idron 2
Expected Goals
1.11 (league 1.41)
0.76 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.5% | 31.4% | 25.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.1%
0 - 0
15.4%
1 - 1
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Onet-le-Château | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Pau II | 0 | 15.4% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.1% | 13.0% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.5% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Pau II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 80 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Pau II -28.3, Onet-le-Château -26.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Pau II
vs
Onet-le-Château
Elo gapPau II +80
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2954.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2954.7
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Pau II | Onet-le-Château |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1499.8 | 1454.9 |
| Form Elo | 1487 | 1442.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1505.5 | 1476.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1449 | 1458.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1577.1 | 1423.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -28.3 | -26.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Pau II last-5 Elo change: -28.3; Onet-le-Château last-5 Elo change: -26.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Pau II | Onet-le-Château |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 40% | 60% |
| Defense | 50% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Pau II | Onet-le-Château | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 10 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 21 |
| Wins | 36% | 20% | 29% | 58% | 11% | 38% |
| Draws | 27% | 30% | 29% | 8% | 44% | 24% |
| Loses | 36% | 50% | 43% | 33% | 44% | 38% |
Pau IIDDLWWWLDLLLWLWDDLDWLL
Onet-le-ChâteauLWDWLWDLLWLDWWDLDLLWW
League goals
| Metric | Pau II | Onet-le-Château | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 6 | 20 | 21 | 8 | 29 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 11 | 12 | 23 | 19 | 11 | 30 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Pau II | Onet-le-Château | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 52% | 71% | 62% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 38% | 48% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 0% | 24% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Pau II | Onet-le-Château | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Pau II | Onet-le-Château |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Pau II | Onet-le-Château |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Pau II | Onet-le-Château |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 56% | 44% |
| Total | 51.0% | 49.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…