Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Jean Léveillé
Expected Goals
2.30 (league 1.33)
0.58 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.4% | 16.0% | 7.6% |
best score tips
2 - 0
14.9%
1 - 0
13.0%
3 - 0
11.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Les Sables | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Challans | 0 | 5.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.0% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.9% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.4% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Challans carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 51 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Challans -17.1, Les Sables -10.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Challans
vs
Les Sables
Elo gapChallans +51
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3001.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3001.3
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Challans | Les Sables |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1508.5 | 1492.8 |
| Form Elo | 1500.4 | 1489.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1508.2 | 1491.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1483.6 | 1502.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1574.9 | 1501.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.1 | -10.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Challans last-5 Elo change: -17.1; Les Sables last-5 Elo change: -10.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Challans | Les Sables |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 33% |
| Attack | 64% | 45% |
| Defense | 36% | 36% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Challans | Les Sables | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| Wins | 45% | 33% | 39% | 45% | 18% | 32% |
| Draws | 45% | 42% | 43% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| Loses | 9% | 25% | 17% | 27% | 55% | 41% |
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Les SablesDLLDWLDLWDLWLWWLWDWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Challans | Les Sables | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 18 | 37 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 6 | 17 | 23 | 10 | 20 | 30 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Challans | Les Sables | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 57% | 73% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 9% | 14% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Challans | Les Sables | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Challans | Les Sables |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Challans | Les Sables |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Challans | Les Sables |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 80% | 20% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 56.3% | 43.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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