Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Gilbert Arnault
Expected Goals
1.47 (league 1.33)
1.36 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 39.4% | 25.1% | 34.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.8%
1 - 0
8.7%
2 - 1
8.7%
Score & goals probability table
| St-Philbert Gd Lieu | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chauvigny | 0 | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 3.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
St-Philbert Gd Lieu carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 41 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chauvigny -2.7, St-Philbert Gd Lieu -20.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Chauvigny
vs
St-Philbert Gd Lieu
Elo gapSt-Philbert Gd Lieu +41
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo2968.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2968.8
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Chauvigny | St-Philbert Gd Lieu |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1446.3 | 1522.5 |
| Form Elo | 1441.1 | 1522.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1478.6 | 1516.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1510.8 | 1481.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1406.8 | 1518.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.7 | -20.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Chauvigny last-5 Elo change: -2.7; St-Philbert Gd Lieu last-5 Elo change: -20.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chauvigny | St-Philbert Gd Lieu |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 40% |
| Attack | 73% | 27% |
| Defense | 27% | 27% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chauvigny | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 12 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 30% | 0% | 14% | 33% | 36% | 35% |
| Draws | 40% | 58% | 50% | 25% | 18% | 22% |
| Loses | 30% | 42% | 36% | 42% | 45% | 43% |
ChauvignyDDLLDLLWDDDLWDDLDDLLWD
St-Philbert Gd LieuDDWLWLLLWLLWDWWDLDWLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Chauvigny | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 10 | 23 | 17 | 12 | 29 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 14 | 20 | 34 | 21 | 17 | 38 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chauvigny | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 73% | 74% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 45% | 39% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 27% | 13% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chauvigny | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chauvigny | St-Philbert Gd Lieu |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chauvigny | St-Philbert Gd Lieu |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-1 | 1-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chauvigny | St-Philbert Gd Lieu |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45% | 55% |
| Att | 73% | 27% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 49.4% | 50.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…