Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Municipal
Expected Goals
2.56 (league 1.26)
1.00 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 66.3% | 16.4% | 12.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.3%
2 - 0
9.3%
3 - 1
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Vannes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cesson | 0 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.3% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Cesson carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 53 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cesson +20.7, Vannes +10.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Cesson
vs
Vannes
Elo gapCesson +53
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3013.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3013.5
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Cesson | Vannes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1515.6 | 1497.9 |
| Form Elo | 1521.3 | 1502.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1511.6 | 1514.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1556.1 | 1506.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1517.6 | 1529.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.7 | +10.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Cesson last-5 Elo change: +20.7; Vannes last-5 Elo change: +10.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cesson | Vannes |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 20% |
| Attack | 85% | 23% |
| Defense | 69% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cesson | Vannes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 10 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| Wins | 56% | 20% | 37% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Draws | 22% | 20% | 21% | 44% | 11% | 28% |
| Loses | 22% | 60% | 42% | 22% | 56% | 39% |
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VannesDWDWWDLLLDDWWLLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Cesson | Vannes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 10 | 27 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 8 | 16 | 24 | 10 | 15 | 25 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cesson | Vannes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 68% | 67% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 37% | 39% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 16% | 17% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 5% | 11% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 0% | 6% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cesson | Vannes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cesson | Vannes |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cesson | Vannes |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 0-4 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-1 | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cesson | Vannes |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 79% | 21% |
| Att | 79% | 21% |
| Def | 69% | 31% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 38% | 63% |
| Total | 64.2% | 36.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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