Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Léo Lagrange
Expected Goals
0.86 (league 1.56)
1.90 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.5% | 21.7% | 60.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
11.9%
0 - 2
11.4%
1 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Thaon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Besançon | 0 | 6.3% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Thaon carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 27 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Besançon -51.1, Thaon -14.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Besançon
vs
Thaon
Elo gapThaon +27
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo2862.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2862.8
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Besançon | Thaon |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1400.5 | 1462.3 |
| Form Elo | 1367.3 | 1443.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1480.5 | 1482.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1392.3 | 1585.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1404.7 | 1423.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -51.1 | -14.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Besançon last-5 Elo change: -51.1; Thaon last-5 Elo change: -14.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Besançon | Thaon |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 0% | 27% |
| Attack | 20% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 10% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
82%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Besançon | Thaon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 18% | 0% | 9% | 33% | 36% | 35% |
| Draws | 27% | 33% | 30% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Loses | 55% | 67% | 61% | 33% | 64% | 48% |
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ThaonDWLLWDWWWWLLWDLLLLLWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Besançon | Thaon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 17 | 40 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 18 | 29 | 47 | 20 | 17 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Besançon | Thaon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 48% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 13% | 57% | 39% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 4% | 35% | 26% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 26% | 13% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 9% | 9% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Besançon | Thaon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Besançon | Thaon |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Besançon | Thaon |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | — | 5-1 | 1-7 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-0 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Besançon | Thaon |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0% | 100% |
| Att | 17% | 83% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 31% | 69% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 17% | 83% |
| Total | 28.2% | 71.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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