Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Pierre Rajon
Expected Goals
1.90 (league 1.80)
0.30 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 75.1% | 18.4% | 5.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
21.0%
2 - 0
19.9%
3 - 0
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
| ASPTT Dijon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bourgoin-Jallieu | 0 | 11.1% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 12.6% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Bourgoin-Jallieu carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 134 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bourgoin-Jallieu -1.0, ASPTT Dijon -14.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Bourgoin-Jallieu
vs
ASPTT Dijon
Elo gapBourgoin-Jallieu +134
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3025
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3025
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Bourgoin-Jallieu | ASPTT Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1561.9 | 1463.1 |
| Form Elo | 1563.8 | 1444.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1539 | 1460.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1475.6 | 1496.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1604.4 | 1456.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.0 | -14.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Bourgoin-Jallieu last-5 Elo change: -1.0; ASPTT Dijon last-5 Elo change: -14.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bourgoin-Jallieu | ASPTT Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 27% |
| Attack | 29% | 24% |
| Defense | 81% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bourgoin-Jallieu | ASPTT Dijon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 82% | 25% | 52% | 33% | 9% | 22% |
| Draws | 9% | 50% | 30% | 33% | 18% | 26% |
| Loses | 9% | 25% | 17% | 33% | 73% | 52% |
Bourgoin-JallieuDWDWWDDWWWWDWLLWLWLWDWD
ASPTT DijonDLLWDLWDLWDLDLWLLLLDWLL
League goals
| Metric | Bourgoin-Jallieu | ASPTT Dijon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 11 | 31 | 17 | 7 | 24 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 8 | 12 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 39 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bourgoin-Jallieu | ASPTT Dijon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 65% | 61% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 22% | 30% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 0% | 13% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bourgoin-Jallieu | ASPTT Dijon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bourgoin-Jallieu | ASPTT Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bourgoin-Jallieu | ASPTT Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | 2-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bourgoin-Jallieu | ASPTT Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 85% | 15% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 62.3% | 37.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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