Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Complexe Sportif Joseph Guetat
Expected Goals
2.85 (league 1.80)
1.09 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 66.7% | 14.7% | 11.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.6%
3 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Carnoux | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Seyssinet-Pariset | 0 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.5% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Seyssinet-Pariset carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 27 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Seyssinet-Pariset -27.8, Carnoux -24.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Seyssinet-Pariset
vs
Carnoux
Elo gapSeyssinet-Pariset +27
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2825.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2825.2
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Seyssinet-Pariset | Carnoux |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1408.7 | 1416.5 |
| Form Elo | 1395.5 | 1398.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1490.1 | 1444.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1500.9 | 1514.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1332.8 | 1230.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -27.8 | -24.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Seyssinet-Pariset last-5 Elo change: -27.8; Carnoux last-5 Elo change: -24.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Seyssinet-Pariset | Carnoux |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 13% |
| Attack | 14% | 14% |
| Defense | 57% | 14% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 18 | 3.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
74%
FT probability
3.5+
53%
FT probability
BTTS
82%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Seyssinet-Pariset | Carnoux | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 12 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 40% | 0% | 18% | 25% | 9% | 17% |
| Draws | 20% | 8% | 14% | 42% | 9% | 26% |
| Loses | 40% | 92% | 68% | 33% | 82% | 57% |
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League goals
| Metric | Seyssinet-Pariset | Carnoux | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 12 | 31 | 22 | 11 | 33 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 15 | 36 | 51 | 30 | 30 | 60 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Seyssinet-Pariset | Carnoux | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 91% | 70% | 96% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 59% | 35% | 65% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 36% | 17% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 23% | 9% | 22% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 9% | 4% | 17% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Seyssinet-Pariset | Carnoux | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Seyssinet-Pariset | Carnoux |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Seyssinet-Pariset | Carnoux |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 8 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | — | 7-1 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 7-1 | 0-8 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Seyssinet-Pariset | Carnoux |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 72% | 28% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 13% | 88% |
| Total | 50.4% | 49.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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