Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Lye Meadow
Expected Goals
1.34 (league 1.55)
1.57 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.3% | 24.5% | 42.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.5%
1 - 2
9.0%
0 - 1
8.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Leiston | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Alvechurch | 0 | 5.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Leiston carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 30 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Alvechurch +20.3, Leiston +8.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Alvechurch
vs
Leiston
Elo gapLeiston +30
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3010.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3010.5
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Alvechurch | Leiston |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1472.8 | 1537.7 |
| Form Elo | 1484.6 | 1550.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1483.2 | 1534 |
| Attack Elo | 1440.5 | 1544.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1548.4 | 1492.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.3 | +8.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Alvechurch last-5 Elo change: +20.3; Leiston last-5 Elo change: +8.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Alvechurch | Leiston |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 47% |
| Attack | 42% | 37% |
| Defense | 68% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Alvechurch | Leiston | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 20 | 21 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| Wins | 35% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 45% | 39% |
| Draws | 15% | 19% | 17% | 48% | 20% | 34% |
| Loses | 50% | 48% | 49% | 19% | 35% | 27% |
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LeistonDLDWWLWDDDWDWLDWLLWWLWLWDDLDDWDWDLWWLLWWD
League goals
| Metric | Alvechurch | Leiston | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 23 | 48 | 34 | 30 | 64 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 28 | 26 | 54 | 26 | 31 | 57 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Alvechurch | Leiston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 71% | 88% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 41% | 46% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 15% | 20% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 5% | 2% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Alvechurch | Leiston | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Alvechurch | Leiston |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Alvechurch | Leiston |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 7 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-4 | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Alvechurch | Leiston |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 59% | 41% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 41% | 59% |
| Total | 47.7% | 52.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.34 @ Dafabet
Draw3.60 @ Betfair
Away2.75 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.50 @ William Hill
No2.39 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.65 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.20 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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