Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Sir Halley Stewart Field
Expected Goals
1.09 (league 1.55)
1.72 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.9% | 23.8% | 51.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.3%
0 - 1
10.4%
1 - 2
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Spalding United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Worcester City | 0 | 6.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Spalding United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 41 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Worcester City +5.4, Spalding United -29.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Worcester City
vs
Spalding United
Elo gapSpalding United +41
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo3187.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3187.6
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Worcester City | Spalding United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1555.6 | 1632 |
| Form Elo | 1557.2 | 1615.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.3 | 1582.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1562 | 1790.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1631.7 | 1574 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.4 | -29.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Worcester City last-5 Elo change: +5.4; Spalding United last-5 Elo change: -29.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Worcester City | Spalding United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Attack | 42% | 42% |
| Defense | 68% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Worcester City | Spalding United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 20 | 21 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| Wins | 40% | 43% | 41% | 62% | 60% | 61% |
| Draws | 30% | 24% | 27% | 19% | 25% | 22% |
| Loses | 30% | 33% | 32% | 19% | 15% | 17% |
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Spalding UnitedLDWWWDWLWWWWWDLDWWWWWDDWWWWLDWWWWLWDLWWLD
League goals
| Metric | Worcester City | Spalding United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 35 | 60 | 53 | 46 | 99 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| GA total | 20 | 20 | 40 | 25 | 25 | 50 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Worcester City | Spalding United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 66% | 95% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 29% | 73% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 2% | 46% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 17% | 2% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Worcester City | Spalding United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Worcester City | Spalding United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Worcester City | Spalding United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-6 | 5-1 | 0-7 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 2-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Worcester City | Spalding United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 49.7% | 50.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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