Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
FNB Stadium
Expected Goals
0.47 (league 1.15)
0.41 (league 0.87)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.1% | 49.8% | 23.2% |
best score tips
0 - 0
41.3%
1 - 0
19.4%
0 - 1
17.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Kaizer Chiefs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Orlando Pirates | 0 | 41.3% | 17.1% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Orlando Pirates carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 179 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Orlando Pirates +9.4, Kaizer Chiefs +34.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Orlando Pirates
vs
Kaizer Chiefs
Elo gapOrlando Pirates +179
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share74%
Combined Elo3306.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3306.3
Elo home share
74%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Orlando Pirates | Kaizer Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1724.9 | 1581.4 |
| Form Elo | 1735.2 | 1593.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1599.9 | 1525.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1743.8 | 1498.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1739 | 1629.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.4 | +34.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Orlando Pirates last-5 Elo change: +9.4; Kaizer Chiefs last-5 Elo change: +34.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Orlando Pirates | Kaizer Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 87% |
| Attack | 100% | 92% |
| Defense | 75% | 83% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 17 | 3.4 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
52%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Orlando Pirates | Kaizer Chiefs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 12 | 25 | 14 | 10 | 24 |
| Wins | 77% | 67% | 72% | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Draws | 8% | 25% | 16% | 29% | 30% | 29% |
| Loses | 15% | 8% | 12% | 21% | 10% | 17% |
Orlando PiratesLLWWWWWWDWWWDWWWLWWWDWWDW
Kaizer ChiefsWWWDWLDDDWWDDWWLLLWWWWWD
League goals
| Metric | Orlando Pirates | Kaizer Chiefs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 26 | 50 | 16 | 12 | 28 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 14 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Orlando Pirates | Kaizer Chiefs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 92% | 32% | 71% | 38% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 12% | 25% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 0% | 13% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 0% | 8% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Orlando Pirates | Kaizer Chiefs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 7 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Orlando Pirates | Kaizer Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Orlando Pirates | Kaizer Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-6 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Orlando Pirates | Kaizer Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 46% | 54% |
| Att | 61% | 39% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 57.8% | 42.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.57 @ William Hill
Draw3.70 @ 10Bet
Away6.54 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.43 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.50 @ Bet365
No1.57 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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