Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 15:30 •
Peter Mokaba Stadium
Expected Goals
1.25 (league 1.15)
0.35 (league 0.87)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 59.7% | 30.0% | 10.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
25.3%
0 - 0
20.2%
2 - 0
15.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Marumo Gallants | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sekhukhune United | 0 | 20.2% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 25.3% | 8.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Sekhukhune United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 148 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sekhukhune United -18.9, Marumo Gallants -27.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Sekhukhune United
vs
Marumo Gallants
Elo gapSekhukhune United +148
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo2972
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2972
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Sekhukhune United | Marumo Gallants |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1542.4 | 1429.6 |
| Form Elo | 1534.2 | 1410 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1511.3 | 1464.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1478.2 | 1395.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1573.7 | 1517.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.9 | -27.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Sekhukhune United last-5 Elo change: -18.9; Marumo Gallants last-5 Elo change: -27.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sekhukhune United | Marumo Gallants |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 13% |
| Attack | 33% | 17% |
| Defense | 50% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
54%
FT probability
2.5+
38%
FT probability
3.5+
27%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sekhukhune United | Marumo Gallants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| Wins | 42% | 38% | 40% | 17% | 15% | 16% |
| Draws | 42% | 23% | 32% | 50% | 15% | 32% |
| Loses | 17% | 38% | 28% | 33% | 69% | 52% |
Sekhukhune UnitedWWWDWWWDLLDDWLDLWWLDDLDWL
Marumo GallantsWWLLDDDDLWLLDDLLLLLWLLLDD
League goals
| Metric | Sekhukhune United | Marumo Gallants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 15 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 6 | 14 | 20 | 11 | 23 | 34 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sekhukhune United | Marumo Gallants | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 56% | 48% | 92% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 16% | 16% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sekhukhune United | Marumo Gallants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sekhukhune United | Marumo Gallants |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sekhukhune United | Marumo Gallants |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-3 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sekhukhune United | Marumo Gallants |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 78% | 22% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 54% | 46% |
| Total | 66.3% | 33.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.84 @ Unibet
Draw3.22 @ Pinnacle
Away5.10 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.61 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.50 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.38 @ Bet365
No1.62 @ William Hill
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League standings
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