Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Mbombela Stadium
Expected Goals
1.42 (league 1.16)
0.60 (league 0.87)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 56.9% | 27.2% | 15.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.9%
2 - 0
13.4%
0 - 0
13.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Magesi | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| TS Galaxy | 0 | 13.1% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.4% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.4% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
TS Galaxy carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 53 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: TS Galaxy -41.8, Magesi +3.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
TS Galaxy
vs
Magesi
Elo gapTS Galaxy +53
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2914.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2914.5
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | TS Galaxy | Magesi |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1466.2 | 1448.3 |
| Form Elo | 1421.7 | 1443.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1504.6 | 1446.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1464.2 | 1441.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1494.9 | 1477.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -41.8 | +3.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. TS Galaxy last-5 Elo change: -41.8; Magesi last-5 Elo change: +3.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | TS Galaxy | Magesi |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 40% |
| Attack | 12% | 53% |
| Defense | 29% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | TS Galaxy | Magesi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| Wins | 42% | 15% | 28% | 33% | 0% | 16% |
| Draws | 8% | 23% | 16% | 25% | 38% | 32% |
| Loses | 50% | 62% | 56% | 42% | 62% | 52% |
TS GalaxyLLWWWDWLLWLWDDWLLLLLDLLLL
MagesiDDLLDLWLLWLDDLLLDLDDLWLLW
League goals
| Metric | TS Galaxy | Magesi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 12 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 22 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 16 | 18 | 34 | 18 | 19 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | TS Galaxy | Magesi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 52% | 80% | 52% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 8% | 8% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | TS Galaxy | Magesi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | TS Galaxy | Magesi |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | TS Galaxy | Magesi |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-4 | 5-2 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-6 | 2-0 | 1-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | TS Galaxy | Magesi |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 14% | 86% |
| Att | 18% | 82% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 9% | 91% |
| Goals | 29% | 71% |
| Total | 30.5% | 69.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.47 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.90 @ Betfair
Away3.35 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.83 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.44 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.25 @ BetVictor
No1.67 @ Betfair
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League standings
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